Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
