Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
